CAIRO - For three decades, President Hosni Mubarak has reliedheavily on a robust, repressive security force to ensure his rule.The unapologetic message he delivered on state television earlySaturday gave no sign that he was shifting course.
He clung instead to the formula that has sustained him again andagain since he inherited power in 1981, after the assassination ofAnwar Sadat. The time-tested Mubarak approach has been to shiftblame, usually to Egypt's shell of a government, while portrayinghis heavy-handed regime as a bulwark against chaos.
But after a day that saw Egypt's riot police overwhelmed, forcingMubarak to turn to the armed forces to try to reimpose order, it wasnot at all clear that the former air force officer could withstand achallenge from unprecedented crowds who have demanded above all elsethat he step down.
Until now, Egypt's middle and upper classes have largely agreedwith Mubarak "that the alternative to the regime was something muchmore dangerous,'' said Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history departmentat the American University in Cairo.
"But now there's a huge generation, or maybe two generations,brought up under Mubarak for whom the language of security has notdelivered," Fahmy said.
A privileged and respected elite in Egypt, the armed forces havealways been the backbone of power for Mubarak, who at 82 is battlingan unknown illness but still cultivates jet-black hair intended toproject youthful vigor. There was no indication that leadingofficers would abandon a leader to whom they owe their comfortablesalaries and housing.
But the protesters' cheers that greeted the military vehiclesrolling into Cairo and Alexandria on Friday clearly suggested a hopefrom Mubarak's opponents that the military this time would choose toside with the people.
"The question mark in my mind is, what are the generals doing?"said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst now at the BrookingsInstitution in Washington. "Are they saying: We want to protect ourprerogatives, but we are prepared to jettison Hosni Mubarak? That wedon't know. That's what happened in Tunisia."
A conservative and cautious leader, Mubarak has proved a reliableAmerican ally, winning him deference from successive U.S. presidentswho have praised him as a partner in the quest for a broader peacein the Middle East. He has charmed generations of U.S. envoys withhis rough-hewn humor and passion for squash, soccer and othersports.
But he has never appointed a vice president, reflecting adetermination to remain Egypt's unchallenged leader, and he hasnever hesitated to use force to beat back challenges to his rule.
After inheriting power in 1981, Mubarak initially took steps toappear moderate, including releasing political prisoners andallowing a modicum of press freedom. But a wave of Islamist attacksin the 1990s prompted a fierce response from the security forces,leaving reforms stalled.
Since then, Mubarak has routinely defied the internationalcommunity's call for greater openness. He has continued to ruleunder an emergency law that for decades has curtailed constitutionalfreedoms, and he has kept in place a ban on the Muslim Brotherhood,an Islamist organization that has long been Egypt's most powerfulopposition force.
In 2005, when demonstrators protested during a constitutionalreferendum, security forces brutally suppressed protesters in whatbecame known as "Black Wednesday."
In June, police kicked a young blogger to death in an Internetcafe for not turning over his identity papers.
Estimates of the size of Egypt's domestic security services,which include the police, riot police and numerous intelligenceservices, vary widely from 300,000 to 2 million. The military isestimated to number 340,000.
Beyond that vast security apparatus, Mubarak has relied forsupport on a bloated civil service of roughly 5 million workers whodepend on him for government jobs. But his traditional base oflaborers, hard-hit by economic reform, have abandoned him and takento the streets.
Despite concerns about Mubarak's health, it had appeared likelyuntil this week that he would seek a sixth term in presidentialelections scheduled for this fall. For years, many Egyptians havesuggested that they were resigned to the prospect that Mubarak wouldbecome president for life, or that he would somehow pass power tohis son, as other Arab leaders have done.
But this week's shouts from protesters, chanting, "Gamal, tellyour father Egyptians hate you," showed how unlikely that scenarionow appears.
zachariaj@washpost.com
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